Communication and group decision making are core to the human social experience. The process of making decisions in a group setting is immensely complex (Hirokawa and Poole, 1996). Due to this complexity, there was little scholarly research in this area before 1980. Hwang and Lin (1987) identified three (3) overarching types of group decision methods, Social Choice Theory, Experts Judgement Theory, and Game Theory.
Essentially Social Choice Theory is the process of gathering individual opinions and manufacturing a collective decision. Voting is a good example of this type of group-think theory. Experts Judgement/Group Participation Theory is generally the anthesis of Social Choice Theory. It’s the use of individual or small group opinions in manufacturing a collective decision. The use of Elders historically, or Think Tanks currently, are good examples of this type of group-think theory. Lastly, Game Theory focuses more on the iterative decision-making process, weighing the actions and reactions of individual decisions in the efforts of determining the optimal group decision.
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Focusing on the Experts Judgement Theory (EJT), Hirokawa and Poole (1996) laid out 13 methods commonly leveraged to use EJT in group decision making:
- Brainstorming
- Brainwriting
- The Nominal Group Technique (NGT)
- Synectics
- Surveys
- Delphi Method
- Conferences
- Successive Proportional Additive Numeration (SPAN)
- Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM)
- Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL)
- Cognitive Map
- Kane’s Simulation (KSIM)
- Critical Path Method (CPM)
Below we’ll compare two of these methods: Delphi and Critical Path Method (CPM). Delphi Method is when one develops a panel or group of experts. Then has them work independently on the question or problem. These results are then reviewed by the panels with the individual who did the analysis removed, so there is no personal bias to the debate (The Decision Lab, 2022). This technique is a clear illustration of the Experts Judgement Theory. It also includes an added measure to an open voting platform, by eliminating unwanted weighting of certain individual connections. A version of this method is leveraged by the YouTube channel Good Mythical Morning in doing blind taste tests on simar versions of popular processed or fast food.
CPM on the other hand is the process of collectively determining the process of events necessary for the achievement of a goal. If the group decision is to decide on multiple goals or avenues of completion, then all avenues are laid out and then determined on based on cost or timeframe to complete. City planning is often done in this fashion.
The primary benefit to Delphi is that its relatively easy to do, as the individuals can go off and work, with the group reconvening to decide on a path. The downside is that it requires a group of individuals who are each have expertise and able to do the analysis. This can be difficult if the issue is complex or nuanced. The benefit to the CPM method is that it can be staffed by a wider variety of individuals, with different skill sets. Someone may be an expert on legal issues, while another may be an expert on construction costs. The downside is that it is time consuming, as all members much be involved in the planning process, often in the same room.
In the end, its all about finding the method that fits the problem. A good system that leverages Experts Judgement Theory would be flexible to switch methods based on the need and importance of each decision.
References:
Hirokawa, R., Poole, M.S. (1996). Communication and Group Decision Making. Sage Publications, Inc. ISBN: 0-7619-0461-1
Hwang, C., Lin, M. (1987 ). Group Decision Making Under Multiple Criteria: Methods and Applications. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-61580-1
Levy, F., Thompson, G., Wiest, J.D. (1963). The ABCs of the Critical Path Method. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/1963/09/the-abcs-of-the-critical-path-method
The Decision Lab. (2022). The Delphi Method Reference Guide. The Decision Lab. https://thedecisionlab.com/reference-guide/management/the-delphi-method
Good Mythical Morning. (2022). https://www.youtube.com/goodmythicalmorning
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